Two sources, two different measures
The AirDNA Bali market overview tracks listings across Airbnb, Vrbo and Booking.com. Its page was updated on 5 July 2026 and reflects completed data through June 2026. AirDNA reported 86,244 active listings, 47% average occupancy, a USD 146 average daily rate and USD 12,800 average annual revenue per active listing. AirDNA is a commercial data provider. Its coverage, definitions and estimates have not been validated by an Indonesian public authority.
AirDNA defines occupancy as reserved nights divided by available listing nights. A blocked or unavailable night is outside that denominator. The company's occupancy methodology matters when comparing its 47% figure with a hotel statistic, a property manager's report or a calendar-year model.
The demand figure comes from a different source. BPS Bali, the provincial statistics office, recorded 6,948,754 direct foreign tourist arrivals from January to December 2025, 9.72% more than in 2024. Visitor arrivals and active rental listings do not share a denominator, so their relationship should be read as market context rather than a yield calculation.
What the island-wide average cannot tell you
An island-wide dataset combines properties that differ in location, bedroom count, condition, remaining lease term, enclosed or open living areas, service level, licensing and price. The 47% figure therefore cannot answer how a particular villa will perform. A useful underwriting model needs a narrower comparison set and must state which nights are available, which costs are deducted and which booking channels are included.
Legal operation also depends on the property and the activity. Zoning, the building approval, the business classification and the operating permissions must match the use. The applicable public framework includes Government Regulation 28/2025 and Tourism Ministry Regulation 6/2025. A listing appearing in a commercial dataset is not evidence that it holds the required permissions.
Harmonie is a separate internal comparison
Harmonie's May 2026 management report recorded 82.26% portfolio occupancy for April 2026. The internal planning range reviewed in July projected 2026 rental revenue at 24% to 40% above 2025. These figures are unaudited, come from a small actively managed collection and use a different scope from AirDNA's island-wide dataset. The forecast is not a closed-year result or a promise for another property.
The value of the comparison lies in the questions it raises: Which properties are genuinely comparable? How many nights were offered? What price was achieved after discounts? Which operating costs were deducted? Our note on Harmonie's operating choices sets out the internal figures and their limits.
Last reviewed: 17 July 2026.
Related: What PP 28/2025 means for villa owners · How Harmonie compares with Bali's market average
Sources checked on 17 July 2026: AirDNA Bali market overview, a commercial source updated on 5 July 2026 with data through June; AirDNA occupancy methodology; and BPS Bali's official 2025 arrivals release. Harmonie figures come from internal management records and have not been independently audited. Market data and forecasts should be refreshed before an investment decision.